I just noticed a pretty terrible prediction I made back in December 2013, which I thought I ought to own up to. I wrote a post called “How First Past the Post has Given India Perpertual Coaltition Government.’ In it I wrote that it was a forgone conclusion that “India will get is a prime minister drawn from one of the two main national parties constantly haggling with regional bigwigs to stop them withdrawing their parties from the governing coalition.” In reality, the opposition BJP went onto to win an outright majority. The first since 1984.
I also said that the “BJP may be on the rise at the moment but it will still be locked out of vaste swathes of Southern and North-Western India.” Even that prediction is now looking shaky. There are indications it may do well in elections to the State Assemblies in no previously weak areas like West Bengal and Kashmir.