The Most Interesting Stats from the 2014 Elections

https://matteroffactsblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/27c2d-ballot.jpg

Photo of 3ft long Euro ballot HT: Iain Dale

37: the number of MPs Sky News is projecting the Lib Dems will win at the next General Election

With all the talk of disasters and wipe-outs it is easy to overlook the fact that despite the rise of UKIP and the purported rise of the Greens, these new parties will almost certainly remain dwarfed by the its oldest party. One has to be of a pretty pessimistic bent to think that the next General Election will not leave the Lib Dems with a sizeable chunk of MPs.

The result of the General Election will almost certainly more closely resemble the heavy beating of the Local Elections than the near total wipe-out of the Euros.

-3%: the drop in the Liberal Democrat share of the projected national vote since 2011

Contrary to the claims of some Clegg boosters that the party has somehow turned a corner, the Lib Dem share of the vote yesterday was as low as it has been for any set of local elections this parliament.

 -0.75%: change in the Green Vote since the 2009

While the Greens did indeed get more votes than the Lib Dems, to say they “pushed us into 4th” is misleading. More accurately, we tripped and hurtled to a position just behind them.

 7.5%: swing from ‘yes’ to ‘no’ in YouGov polling on Britain’s EU membership since January

UKIP has won this battle but looks increasingly likely to lose the war. Its rise has coincided with a loss of support in polls for its central objective of taking Britain out of the EU.

2.2%: D66’s lead over Party for Freedom in the Dutch Euro vote

While the Far Right has in general done well in this round of European elections, it has not done so everywhere. Most strikingly the party of the obnoxious Geert Wilders has lost votes and seats.

Even more striking is the fact that the Dutch polls were topped by the social liberal D66. A party which has in the past suffered travails of the kind that would seem familiar to Lib Dems.

There is thus no iron rule saying that populism must trump liberalism.

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