Earlier this week, I blogged about the challenge that a new Hindu nationalist government might pose for the West. Potentially the trickiest of these issues is how the US deals with its travel ban on Narendra Modi, the man whose very likely to be the next prime minister of India for his role in anti-Muslim pogroms in his homestate of Gujarat. Foreign Policy’s The Cable blog explains the dilemma:
“If he becomes prime minister, the U.S. will have to find a way to do business with him,” Tanvi Madan, director of the Brookings Institution’s India Project, told The Cable. “The question is whether or not to do something before next year’s election.”
Both options present risks.
If the United States continues to restrict Modi’s travel and freeze him out of diplomatic discussions at the ambassadorial level, it risks alienating an important partner on everything from trade to security to finance to diaspora issues. By contrast, the European Union, Britain, and Germany have all engaged in ambassador-level discussions with Modi. This status quo also risks insulting hundreds of millions of Indians.
“The travel restriction has created resentment amongst the leadership and some amongst the rank-and-file BJP party workers,” said Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We’re talking about a three-time incumbent chief minister. He hasn’t been found guilty by any court of law, he’s not under indictment for any crime, and there hasn’t been a smoking gun in their view. So how can you, the United States, prevent this guy from coming to your country?”
But not everyone agrees with the BJP’s interpretation of history. There is currently a trench war playing out on Capitol Hill over Modi’s legacy. Anti-Modi groups, such as the Indian American Muslim Council (IAMC), promise to name and shame anyone supportive of Modi, whom they consider a genocidal Hindu supremacist. IAMC has hired the lobbying firm Fidelis to advance its goals on the Hill, including a resolution critical of violations of minority groups in India that was introduced by Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA).
The Cable has learned that anti-Modi groups are also planning a legal challenge against the chief minister should he ever travel to the United States. “Some of us are working with the next of kin of victims of the Gujarat 2002 violence living in the United States,” Shaik Ubaid, founder of the Coalition Against Genocide, said. “We will be ready to file criminal and tort cases against Modi should he try to come to the United States.”
Pro-Modi groups, such as the Hindu American Foundation, have accused these anti-Modi groups of slandering the reputation of India and its leaders. “It is certainly disappointing to see Indian- Americans hiring an American lobbying firm to advocate for a deeply flawed and insulting American resolution critical of India,” said the Hindu American Foundation‘s Jay Kansara.
The pro-Modi camp has courted high-profile Republican lawmakers such as Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Rep. Aaron Schock, but to varying degrees of success. After heaping effusive praise on Modi following a 2013 visit to Gujarat, McMorris Rodgers denied association with him in November after anti-genocide groups complained about an invite for Modi to talk to Republican leaders on Capitol Hill via video link. “They don’t have a relationship,” a congressional aide told The Cable.
Technically, it would not be difficult for Foggy Bottom to resolve Modi’s travel status. Although the department originally determined that Modi was ineligible for travel under the Immigration and Nationality Act, it’s not bound by that earlier decision.
“Our long-standing policy with regard to the chief minister is that he is welcome to apply for a visa and await a review like any other applicant,” Harf told The Cable. “That review will be grounded in U.S. law.”
However, Modi is unlikely to reapply for a visa between now and the 2014 elections.
Alternatively, the United States could implement a half-measure, such as issuing a statement that clarifies that America would never bar the leader of India from entering the country. But even that poses problems.
“Friends at the State Department say they’re hyperaware of this issue but constrained because of the elections,” said Vaishnav. “They don’t want to be seen as endorsing a candidate or meddling in Indian politics. The State Department doesn’t want to be on the front page of Indian newspapers.”
Madan agrees. “Any sign of foreign interference would be taken extremely negatively in India,” she said. “The Congress party would latch onto that, saying the U.S. has endorsed Modi.”
By and large, Foggy Bottom is boxed in on the issue. “There is little doubt that this poses a dilemma for the State Department,” said Madan. “Modi is a major figure in Indian politics. It’s impossible to imagine that they haven’t thought through the various scenarios, but it’s unclear what they’ll do.”